By-elections in 4 ridings in central Canada

Four by-elections in the three central Canadian provinces are being closely watched today as an indication of what Canadians think of the ruling Conservative party, and a bellwether of the next national federal election in 2015.

Stephen Harper has been Prime Minister since 2006.  For most of these years he’s had a stranglehold on power.  But a scandal over the expenses claimed by some senators in Canada’s Upper House, and the way in which the government has handled the controversies, has some Canadians reviewing their options.

And there are some tight races.  In one of the wealthiest ridings in the country, Toronto Centre, in downtown Toronto, Chrystia Freeland, a journalist and the author of the book, “Plutocrats”, is running for the Liberal party.  Linda McQuaig, the author, most recently of “The Trouble With Billionaires”, is running for the left of centre New Democratic Party.

The Bourassa riding in Montreal, Quebec, is one of the poorest ridings in Canada.  Two Haitian-Canadians are vying for the seat in the House of Commons, to replace long-time Liberal Member of Parliament Dennis Coderre, who left the seat vacant to run, and win the recent campaign for Mayor of Montreal.

In Manitoba, two by-elections are underway.  The Provencher riding is widely expected to remain in Conservative hands.  In the Brandon-Souris riding, however, it is anticipated the Conservatives will lose the seat.  And to add insult to injury, the son of a long-serving popular Conservative Member of Parliament is expected to claim the riding for the Liberals.

Carmel Kilkenny spoke with Professor Nelson Wiseman of the University of Toronto’s Political Science department.  Professor Wiseman makes some predictions and explains why the conservatives are likely to hold onto one riding, but the other 3 will either stay, or become liberal ridings, signalling Canadians’ discontent with the ruling party.